No White Christmas

Unfortunately the forecast does not point toward a white Christmas this year as there is a High Pressure in the mild Atlantic Ocean that wants to visit Irelands shores for the festive season.

Temperatures are in fact going to be very mild making it a totally different scenario to what we experienced in last years Big Freeze when the temperature on Christmas morning was a lowly minus 17c.

Though the Christmas is not going to be white the long range forecast is looking at some cooler weather coming in for the New Year and some of the not so reliable long range models have some bitterly cold weather setting in for January 2012.

To Snow or not to Snow

That is the Question. Whether it is nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of mild weather or by opposing get cold weather to end them.


Certainly a colder feel to the weather for the coming weeks with a lot of showery weather where the showers will be wintry with sleet and hail with the odd one of snow


Temperatures for the next 10 days will be 6 to 9c.

Unsettled Times Ahead

Rather Mild weather has been dominating November so far with the temperature reaching the dizzy heights of 17.3c in Valentia Observatory and also getting above 16c in Belmullet on Sunday 13th November 2011. Just what is causing this unseasonably mild weather. Hell it is looking as if it is going to be the mildest November on record in a good number of locations around Ireland and this is even if we do get the expected cooler weather toward the end of the month.


1994 was indeed a very mild November in Ireland also with the mean temperature in the North of Ireland of near 9c while it got over 10c in parts of the South. But while a lot of that year saw mild wet and windy weather November 2011 has been quite different with a predominately Southeasterly flow steering up warm winds from the continent.


Now the weather is going to stay mild for the next 10 days but there will be some subtle changes. The first one is that it will be a lot wetter. Some stations like Claremorris and Finner Camp have only seen 10 to 20% of their normal rainfall for the month of November so far. This figure will bulk up so that by the end of the month it will be near normal again. As well as being wetter the weather is going to slowly get a little cooler from the North with temperatures dipping into high single figures by day around the end of the month.


How this is going to impact the Christmas weather is hard to say but what is certain is that by the time December comes we will be due a spell of cold weather so I wouldnt rule out some spells of frost at least if the Atlantic loosens its grip.

A Drier November?

It does look a lot drier in general for November after a wet start. High Pressure will be always nearby and there will be some frosty nights. Nothing too severe.


There will therefore be a lot of sunshine and rainfall should be below average. There will be breakdowns in this pattern at times and as the High slips south toward the end of the month a cooler Northerly or Northwesterly could bring the first wintry showers of the season.


This however will be short-lived and will be replaced by milder weather as we head into December.

Cool Weather in General

Although the weather in recent weeks has been very mild for the start of October both in Ireland and the UK, it is set to get cooler in the coming few weeks with a lot of rain and some wintry showers at times. Snow is not likely except on the highest peaks but it will be a good deal cooler.

What is the cause of this? Well for nearly all of 2011 the weather pattern has been coming from the Atlantic and in the last few months in particular it has been coming from the Northwest. This resulted in a very cool June and August.

Again we are looking at a continuation of this weather pattern in the coming few weeks with a lot of windy weather to go along with it so it will feel very seasonal though perhaps too early for any snow lovers to take out the skis.

Take it that temperatures are now going to be below normal or at average and rainfall will be above average especially along the already soaked Atlantic seaboard.

Warm end to September

September has ended on a real warm note with a high of 25.5c recorded in the Pheonix Park and 24.4c in Casement.

These temperatures are comparable to anything that Ireland experienced over the Summer that has already been recorded as the coolest in over 50 years in some parts.

Well the rest of September looks set to remain mild or even warm but there will be more cloud than September 28th and there will be a lot of rain in the Western half of the country which has seen a very wet September overall in 2011.

2011 Summer coolest in 50 years

The Summer just gone has not been notable for anything really apart from the fact that it has been a very cool one.

Temperatures for each of the 3 months are over a degree below what would normally be expected in Ireland.

The last days of August have not improved the trend and September is not looking like causing much of an improvement either.

So what has caused the Summer to be so cool?

Some would say that the number of volcanoes has an affect on it but this is not always true.

The main consensus points to the Southerly point of the Jetstream which has resulted in all the cooler air from the North being dragged over the British Isles instead of warmer air from the Southwest if the Azores High had come over us at all.

Its too far to say it yet but if the long standing Northerly dominance of our weather persists as it has done throughout 2011 we could be in for yet another of those freezing cold Winters.

No Sign of Summer

The past week has seen between 40 and 60mm of rain in many parts of Ireland with very little sunshine and it certainly looks like Summer 2011 is going to go down as yet another poor Summer.

The last time there was widespread heat for Summer in Ireland was July 2005 and even then there was a lot of thunderstorms. There was also some warm weather in August 2003 so it would seem that cool Summers are now the norm.

However globally the temperature is rising so how  is it that Ireland is not benefitting?

A lot of it has to do with the Jetstream which has been to the South or over Ireland for the past 6 Summers now. As long as this is the case we will continue to get these cool Summers.

Also as long as it happens in the Winter we will get freezing conditions. Conversely the Polar Sea Ice in the North Pole is at its lowest level for the time of year and may end up at its lowest level ever around the start of September. This can have the effect of altering the climate patterns of the Northern Hemisphere but Scientists are as of yet uncertain exactly how it will affect Ireland.

We are definitely in a period of climate transition in Ireland but it does seem that we are currently in a cool phase of weather and Summer will need to be written off for another year unfortunately.

A thundery scene for August.

Thundery weather becoming prevalent in August with Heavy Rain at times. There will also be some dry spells too. Temperatures are going to be near normal or slightly below but there will be the odd warm day too. Normal daytime values for August in Ireland are 16 to 18 or 19c but on the warm days they will reach 21 or 22c

July Becomes Cooler

Not the headline that you want to see on the long range weather prediction but this is the way it looks for the coming 7 to 10 days.


A lot of rain and showers and quite windy from the Northwest.


Toward the end of the period things are trying to settle down once more so we should hit 20c once again.

Cooler Weather on Way

Will we get 25c in Ireland this Summer? Strangely April is the warmest month so far and the start of June too. The past 2 days have seen the mercury creep over 22c in parts but cooler weather is on the way in the short term.


For 25c try the end of July maybe. More on this in the next blog.

Warmer July

July is looking a bit more settled now than previously though a week ago although it may turn out just the opposite again.

However at present a few days at the start of 20c especially in the East and South will mean a pleasant feel to things as the month begins.

Then as we head into July it will turn a bit showery but High Pressure will never be too far away and conditions especially in the South and East of Ireland will be drier than normal.

Cool and Showery

Everybody go. Nothing to see here. Cool and showery for the rest of the Summer is a general consensus floating around at the moment. Hopefully this wont ring true but there is an established and quite mobile flow of Atlantic systems passing over or close to Ireland for the forseeable future with just a few warm days dotted between the almost constant Lows. While it is not as powerful as some recent Summers this year so far has seen its fair share of quite chilly weather. In fact in April we were enjoying warmer conditions than we are now!

Summer 2011 Over?

Summer 2011 would appear to be over after just 4 good days. The charts are repeating a North-West/South-East split for the rest of June and into July there does not appear much change. SO if you live in the Southeast there will be some sunny days from time to time but if you live in the North and West these will be fewer and temperatures will be around normal or slightly cooler at times. Sorry for the bad news.

Flamin June quenched!

The warm start to June will be a false falacy as the weather patterns change dramatically with a low replacing the High and residing over Ireland for the first two weeks of June. This of course will be after temperatures of some 25c on June 3rd 2011 in Ireland. There will still be the odd nice day in June and at least it will not be as windy as May Temperatures are only going to be 12 to 15c before rising to 15 to 18c after week ones heatwave of 4 days!

Anything better for June?

Well May has been a complete write off. High Pressure stuck out in the Atlantic being of no use to anyone.

This scenario happened last Summer too but signals are that June will have a better attempt at pushing the High up to us and bringing warmer conditions of at least 20c if it comes off.

However the High does not seem too keen to cross Ireland in June. We want it over Scandanavia or Northern Europe. What is showing up now in the weather models is it declining back into the ocean with a splash and back to square May once again.

At least we'll get a few nice days for the start of June so the bank holiday may be flaming yet.

Changing Weather Models

There is much uncertainty in the Long Range Weather Forecasting Models. One thing for sure is that the Atlantic is going to get a battering on Monday May 23rd and that there will be 25 to 35mm of rain in the next 3 to 4 days in some parts of the West.

wetterzentrale.de latest model

Beyond that the models dont agree. Do the storms drag a lot of the bad weather up North or will a replacement secondary system become lodged over Ireland?

The first scenario has strengthened its claims on the latest model for a warm sector to end May. This wasnt at all feasible only 12 hours earlier.

Both scenarios result in a temperature differential of 10c so we would like the heat. Perhaps a safer option would be halfway between these. Maybe some warm sunny spells but some shower activity too. No doubt after the weekend it will become clearer. Weatherwise we hope too.

In order to keep posted weathergossip has it all.

Very wet May on the cards

A look at the long range weather models show that May is going to be a very wet month. But lets not panic yet. We were expecting that but hopefully at month end and into June things will improve somewhat. However it does look like the South and West of Ireland will see their wettest May in many years.

So far in Cork they have already had over a months worth of rain and though places like Sligo, Galway and Castlebar have been drier so far this is about to change as the wind shifts to a more Westerly stream.

The East should end up with a May of normal or just above normal rainfall but overall the temperatures are going to cool down significantly too for the rest of the month making it feel quite Autumnal at times!!! Just look forward to June I'd advise.

Widespread Gorse Fires

Gorse Fire burns in the distance in Sligo

A Bank Holiday weekend that saw some of the worst gorse fires to hit Ireland in many years. More especially in the Northwest and Donegal there was acres of gorse burnt. The cause of this was the Southeastery winds which panned the flames. Also there has been alleged arson too. The army was deployed to deal with the fires and most are under control but there are still one or two in Sligo, Leitrim and Offaly.

As the week goes on the weather is expected to become very wet and windy so this problem will be a thing of the past. Temperatures are expected to drop back to seasonal values or below as rainfall increases. The whole month of May is expected to be a lot wetter and cooler than March or April were when the weather was very dry indeed.

Winds are also going to be strong for the next 10 day in Ireland. This will be a change from the near calm conditions that Ireland has enjoyed in 2011 so far.

Dry Weather is continuing

The Dry weather is continuing and indeed the dry trend for 2011 has continued also. Ireland saw a little bit of heavy rain at the start of April and also in February but there has been an awful lot of dry weather this year.

As has been previously discussed here the past 3 or 4 years have followed a similar pattern to this one and have usually ended in May or June turning wetter and this has been followed by long periods of rain and thundery weather.

This year though long range predictions have weaker energy coming from the Atlantic and are just showing a short breakdown for May in the weather. After this June and July are looking like they will bring a recovery in temperatures and weather conditions but the weathergossip  2011 Summer weather forecast which will be published at the end of this week will confirm all.

Warmth continues

Sunny April 2011

The April 2011 warmth has continued and the month is on course to be near enough the record temperature on average ever experienced in Ireland for April. Every day since April 1st has seen quite high values to when the month is looked at as a whole it will be very hard to beat in the future.

Or so it would seem. It depends on many factors and the final week could go a long way to telling if April 2011 is going to be a record breaker. Finally a sneak preview of May suggests a cooler period of weather with quite a degree more wet weather on the horizon by then

Then if we look further ahead to the Summer of 2011 the weather still looks like it will be warm a lot of the time and there will be many periods of good weather overall.

April Dry Weather

Dry trends in the Long Range Models now for April with High becoming established for the rest of the month and in to May. Not certain if a cooler trend will establish then with Low Pressure. What is certain is that temperatures on average through April will be near record values.

April Record Average Temperature

It now looks highly likely that the average temperature for this month will be close to a record for the month for Ireland. Perhaps even above 11c. The normal is 8c. So a 3c deviation is quite a lot. more to follow...

Warm and Cool Spells

The weather doesnt seem to know what its at in Ireland these days does it. One day cold the next roasting. This next few days could see temperatures exceed 20c but then by this time next week we could be talking 10c with ground frosts and even tonight there may be a grass frost in the North.

It makes you wonder what is going on with the weather in Ireland in the past few weeks. Essentially it has been dry but the average temperature has been breached by day, however a lot of the time the nights have been frosty.

The temperatures for the coming few weeks are going to continue to vary it would seem but but April so far is running 2 to 3c ABOVE average. It is in essence giving Ireland temperatures that would be more reminiscent of June, or definitely May.

Warm weather at an end

Unfortunate to say the least as the Spring weather was very pleasant but it does look like we will see Southwesterlies become dominant as we head into April and though this will mean mild temperatures there will be more in the way of rain than we have seen recently. Get your brollies out but some parts of Ireland especially the South and East will get drier periods in early April and this could mean some warm temperatures in the High teens at times.

So far the Highest temperature of the year is 18.6c on March 24th 2011 in Valentia Co Kerry and our local station in Sligo recorded 17.2c on that same day.

March of Many Weathers

Sunshine at Fota Wildlife Park, Co Cork

This is what they usually say about March and 2011 will be no exception. So far Ireland has seen sun, rain, hail, wind, sleet and even snow at some levels. So for the rest of the month this will probably continue to be the case although the temperatures will be on a slightly more upward spiral than at present and the sun will be a lot stronger.

For March 12th there was some snow at low levels in Ulster and North Connaught but this should be all that there is now though there is still a slight risk of the white stuff for March 13th. The South and East have been considerably milder with temperatures of about 8 to 10c compared to the 2 to 4c in the North and West.

There is unlikely to be any more snow until the end of March when there is a risk of some more wintry showers as a High Pressure that was over Ireland shifts to the Southwest. Temperatures for the rest of the month will fluctuate also between mild in the midteens to colder single figures though nothing exceptional. It will probably end up as a month that was slightly milder than normal, slightly drier than normal and slightly sunnier than normal for Ireland.

Spring is here!

Irelands cold Winter is over at last and the long range weather for the coming few weeks is promising a lot of dry and bright weather. Rainfall figures are going to be low in all parts of Ireland but Munster and Leinster look set to see the best of the sunshine. Ulster and Connaught will always be more prone to some rain or drizzle during March but it doesnt look like falls of above 5mm will occur on many days of march at all. In fact low rainfall may be the feature of March 2011 and as well as that above average sunshine. There would then be probably only about 2 or 3 good months left in the year so we would hope that these would occur around the Summer and though it is far to early to say yet this Summer would mathematically be a good one since we get a good one in Ireland around every 8 years. 2003, 1995, 1987??

"Swan Lake", Sligo (Lough Gill)

2011 Weather so far .....



Fine Winters Day, Dublin



 So far 2011 has seen almost every type of weather. This of course is quite normal for the season of Winter. Snow has been rare now this year in comparison to the virtual snowmageddon in 2010 but this is due to a return of Atlantic conditions over the past few weeks.





This type of weather looks set to continue for the rest of February and probably into March also with just short sharp cold bursts. At the moent also it looks like the worst of the frosts are over until next Winter though dont write off a  few minus 2 or 3 nights but nothing prolonged like before.

Overall it is weathergossip's belief that 2011 will be quite a warm year and trends worldwide point to one of the warmest years worldwide on record. Just because we mention this does not mean it will be a "barbeque" Summer but there should be warm days in more plentiful supply than recent years.


Back to the present and it is the end of February and March that we now focus our long term weather predictions on. February looks like ending on a mixed if rather mild note. This looks like following into March with possibly some drier weather and a slight decrease in temperature. It seems as if March will bring another month of above average temperatures and usually when this is the case the rainfall is also above normal .


For further information about what the weather holds in store long range for Ireland why not check out http://www.weathergossip.com/2011weather.html

Heavy Rain in February

For the first time in a long time February in Ireland has been characterized by very heavy rain and strong winds. Totals of over 5 times the normal have occurred in the Western parts which is well over a months worth of rainfall and then some. No wonder the fields are flooded and the water table is so high. Well this wet weather is going to continue until at least the halfway point of the month but after Valentines Day it does look as though as well as love being in the air a change of weather will be too.

There are cold Easterlies trying to gather steam against the Western juggernaut of the Atlantic. These may well get held up in England but it seems that there will be low temperatures and frost by night even if the chances of snow falling still remain uncertain.

Rain Gone Forever?

Where is all of the rain gone? This is perhaps the most dangerous question you can ask in Ireland. What usually follows is deluges and floods. It looks like there will be a significant spell of wet weather in February for a time but whether it will bring a month of above average rainfall is open to question.

The months of November, December and January have been very dry compared to normal with rainfall of only about 60% of what is expected. The figure for Sligo is 281mm of rain at present. Normal for the 3 months here would be over 420mm.

High pressure remains in place until February and then it slowly slips away allowing the Atlantic to exert an influence. What it could mean with the rain is some milder Southwesterlies so at last you will be able to turn that heating down.

Blocking High

The end of January has seen a lot of very quite and cold and sometimes frosty weather. It has not been nearly as severe as what we experienced in December but the temperature has still dipped to minus 7c. The coming few weeks see a cold pattern continuing up to the first week of February before the Atlantic once more tries to make inroads but it is too early to say yet how this will pan out. Overall models signal a low overall rainfall pattern for February continuing the drier than normal Winter theme. Since November 1st there has been 280mm of rain in Sligo whereas in a normal mild 3 month period this figure would be closer to 400mm. There has also been 41 days of frost while in some Winters there was only 10 to 20 days.

Image from http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ shows the blocking high that is currently situated over us.

Return of the Atlantic Weather

After such a long period of cold icy weather it makes us forget that our weather is normally so Atlantic dominated. During much of the year 2009 there was rain non stop and it is only in the past year that things have been drier than normal. Of course we have had some wet months in the last 12 like September and July of course but overall we have enjoyed many dryier than normal months of late.

This would seem to suggest that the Atlantic weather is not going to last and this would appear to be backed up by some of the models that are predicting a return to some cold weather by January 20th. This depends on a couple of Low Pressures and the Jet Stream but at the moment a cold spell looks like happening here. However it is going to be nothing like December and will probably just bring ice and wintry showers like the North and West of Ireland saw on January 8th and 9th.