According to the latest GFS modelling system the exact date that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming brings snow to Ireland has now been identified. It is likely that Ireland will be in the grip of heavy snowfall on March 4th. It could last up to a week especially in the East and North.
Northerly plunge on March 4th signals start to Arctic spell.
Is La Nina finally on the way out after nearly 3 years? What is La Nina and what does it mean for our weather?
La Nina generally takes place when the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) to the West of South America is colder than normal. Through this process the weather systems around the globe are affected. Generally Winters are drier and colder.
Does La Nina affect Irelands weather? It does seem to weaken the Atlantic influence to our weather as we have seen in the past few years there has been less storms and the Atlantic has been "quiet".
So what will El Nino mean for us? Well the SST is now increasing and we may have a global El Nino as soon as this Summer. This generally results in warmer than average conditions around the world. While we have seen a lot of warm weather worldwide due to Climate Change there are fears the situation could get much worse with an El Nino event. The last El Nino to quickly follow a La Nina in Ireland in Summer was 1976!
A new Sudden Stratospheric Warming could be on the way as we head into Spring in Ireland. What does this mean for our weather? We'll it doesn't always mean severe cold but it often will as the cold in the Arctic is shifted South into countries that normally have warmer weather.
Currently conditions I the Arctic can be seen below and look pretty normal bar a strong plume of Southerlies from the Atlantic side.
However Ireland may escape in the short term as there is a strong blocking high over us at present and this looks set to remain in place for most of February.
This February is now looking very bland and dry for Ireland. So far Casement has only had 1.1mm of rain for the 1st week! The West has had a bit of drizzle at times. This weather is going to continue for the next couple of weeks with some very Spring like weather likely at times as High Pressure is lodged nearby. Temperatures could very well rise right up to 15c during the month. Next weekend is one of these opportunities.
So despite previous predictions of cold weather in the midmonth period it now looks as if mainly mild prevails. Of course an odd frost will be possible but nothing like the cold of last month below for memories.
February is normally a month that is dominated by an Easterly or wet but 2023 is all very knife edge stuff. Some of the forecasting models are predicting quite a mild month while other ones such as the GFS are showing a colder outcome.
What would seem likely to happen is that it will start off relatively mild and breezy with a little rain but then further into the month things get that bit drier.
Certainly February's weather in Ireland will be dominated by high pressure near or over Ireland but whether it brings mild or cold weather is whats open to question.
At the moment there is quite a low possibility that Ireland goes into the freezer after midmonth but what seems more likely is that the cold weather will be to the East and in Britain and the continent while the temperatures here will likely be 7 to 10c.
The second half of February looks like being cooler than average and mild weather looks very much off the table. This is due to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that happens in the Arctic every couple of years and this year it has just started. It results in the Polar airmass becoming displaced and initially it looks like being displaced over the US and Canada. After this parts of Rusdia and Northern Europe become targets and its then that cold air may seep in from the East over Ireland.
So an interesting month indeed and the cold temperatures could last well into Spring.
