Unsettled Times Ahead

Rather Mild weather has been dominating November so far with the temperature reaching the dizzy heights of 17.3c in Valentia Observatory and also getting above 16c in Belmullet on Sunday 13th November 2011. Just what is causing this unseasonably mild weather. Hell it is looking as if it is going to be the mildest November on record in a good number of locations around Ireland and this is even if we do get the expected cooler weather toward the end of the month.


1994 was indeed a very mild November in Ireland also with the mean temperature in the North of Ireland of near 9c while it got over 10c in parts of the South. But while a lot of that year saw mild wet and windy weather November 2011 has been quite different with a predominately Southeasterly flow steering up warm winds from the continent.


Now the weather is going to stay mild for the next 10 days but there will be some subtle changes. The first one is that it will be a lot wetter. Some stations like Claremorris and Finner Camp have only seen 10 to 20% of their normal rainfall for the month of November so far. This figure will bulk up so that by the end of the month it will be near normal again. As well as being wetter the weather is going to slowly get a little cooler from the North with temperatures dipping into high single figures by day around the end of the month.


How this is going to impact the Christmas weather is hard to say but what is certain is that by the time December comes we will be due a spell of cold weather so I wouldnt rule out some spells of frost at least if the Atlantic loosens its grip.

A Drier November?

It does look a lot drier in general for November after a wet start. High Pressure will be always nearby and there will be some frosty nights. Nothing too severe.


There will therefore be a lot of sunshine and rainfall should be below average. There will be breakdowns in this pattern at times and as the High slips south toward the end of the month a cooler Northerly or Northwesterly could bring the first wintry showers of the season.


This however will be short-lived and will be replaced by milder weather as we head into December.

Cool Weather in General

Although the weather in recent weeks has been very mild for the start of October both in Ireland and the UK, it is set to get cooler in the coming few weeks with a lot of rain and some wintry showers at times. Snow is not likely except on the highest peaks but it will be a good deal cooler.

What is the cause of this? Well for nearly all of 2011 the weather pattern has been coming from the Atlantic and in the last few months in particular it has been coming from the Northwest. This resulted in a very cool June and August.

Again we are looking at a continuation of this weather pattern in the coming few weeks with a lot of windy weather to go along with it so it will feel very seasonal though perhaps too early for any snow lovers to take out the skis.

Take it that temperatures are now going to be below normal or at average and rainfall will be above average especially along the already soaked Atlantic seaboard.

Warm end to September

September has ended on a real warm note with a high of 25.5c recorded in the Pheonix Park and 24.4c in Casement.

These temperatures are comparable to anything that Ireland experienced over the Summer that has already been recorded as the coolest in over 50 years in some parts.

Well the rest of September looks set to remain mild or even warm but there will be more cloud than September 28th and there will be a lot of rain in the Western half of the country which has seen a very wet September overall in 2011.

2011 Summer coolest in 50 years

The Summer just gone has not been notable for anything really apart from the fact that it has been a very cool one.

Temperatures for each of the 3 months are over a degree below what would normally be expected in Ireland.

The last days of August have not improved the trend and September is not looking like causing much of an improvement either.

So what has caused the Summer to be so cool?

Some would say that the number of volcanoes has an affect on it but this is not always true.

The main consensus points to the Southerly point of the Jetstream which has resulted in all the cooler air from the North being dragged over the British Isles instead of warmer air from the Southwest if the Azores High had come over us at all.

Its too far to say it yet but if the long standing Northerly dominance of our weather persists as it has done throughout 2011 we could be in for yet another of those freezing cold Winters.

No Sign of Summer

The past week has seen between 40 and 60mm of rain in many parts of Ireland with very little sunshine and it certainly looks like Summer 2011 is going to go down as yet another poor Summer.

The last time there was widespread heat for Summer in Ireland was July 2005 and even then there was a lot of thunderstorms. There was also some warm weather in August 2003 so it would seem that cool Summers are now the norm.

However globally the temperature is rising so how  is it that Ireland is not benefitting?

A lot of it has to do with the Jetstream which has been to the South or over Ireland for the past 6 Summers now. As long as this is the case we will continue to get these cool Summers.

Also as long as it happens in the Winter we will get freezing conditions. Conversely the Polar Sea Ice in the North Pole is at its lowest level for the time of year and may end up at its lowest level ever around the start of September. This can have the effect of altering the climate patterns of the Northern Hemisphere but Scientists are as of yet uncertain exactly how it will affect Ireland.

We are definitely in a period of climate transition in Ireland but it does seem that we are currently in a cool phase of weather and Summer will need to be written off for another year unfortunately.