February is normally a month that is dominated by an Easterly or wet but 2023 is all very knife edge stuff. Some of the forecasting models are predicting quite a mild month while other ones such as the GFS are showing a colder outcome.
What would seem likely to happen is that it will start off relatively mild and breezy with a little rain but then further into the month things get that bit drier.
Certainly February's weather in Ireland will be dominated by high pressure near or over Ireland but whether it brings mild or cold weather is whats open to question.
At the moment there is quite a low possibility that Ireland goes into the freezer after midmonth but what seems more likely is that the cold weather will be to the East and in Britain and the continent while the temperatures here will likely be 7 to 10c.
The second half of February looks like being cooler than average and mild weather looks very much off the table. This is due to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that happens in the Arctic every couple of years and this year it has just started. It results in the Polar airmass becoming displaced and initially it looks like being displaced over the US and Canada. After this parts of Rusdia and Northern Europe become targets and its then that cold air may seep in from the East over Ireland.
So an interesting month indeed and the cold temperatures could last well into Spring.
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