Warmest September on Record to hit Ireland

 This September is shaping up to be the warmest on record for Ireland. According to Met Eireann 2021 is the warmest September Ireland has ever had with an average temperature of 14.8c nationwide. However this month is already over 16c after 4 days and with another week of temperatures in the 20s and night time temperatures in the mid teens it will be over 17c by this time next week. 

With a value of around 16.5c midmonth it would take 2 weeks of cool weather for the IMT to go below 15c. This is unlikely as High Pressure remains stationed near to Ireland for the entirety of the month with just brief interruptions.

Not only will Ireland have its warmest September on record but so will Britain though 1906 has set a high bar there. Also it is likely France will also break records for heat in September.

Temperatures reached 27.5c in Valentia on September 4th. 

2023 June Heatwave

 The 2023 June heatwave starts tomorrow but how long is it going to last? The High isn't moving at all so plenty more days like today when 24c was reached widely. 

The weather stays dry until about day 10 of June when some rain cannot be ruled out but is this a breakdown or just a blip. It's likely to be just a blip as High Pressure remains close and builds stronger as we move into a historic hot June aka 1976. 

How has the weather in Ireland changed in recent years?

 

1. Increased rainfall: Ireland is known for its wet climate, with rainfall occurring throughout the year. In recent years, there have been reports of higher levels of precipitation and more frequent rainfall events. This increase in rainfall can lead to localized flooding, particularly in areas with inadequate drainage systems or in regions prone to river overflow.

2. Mild winters: Compared to other countries at similar latitudes, Ireland experiences relatively mild winters. While temperatures can drop below freezing, especially during the night, extended periods of severe cold are less common. Snowfall is more likely in elevated areas, such as the mountains of the west and northwest, where snow can accumulate and last for several days.

3. Storm events: Ireland is susceptible to storms, and there have been instances of particularly severe storm events in recent years. Storms like Storm Ophelia (2017) and Storm Emma (2018) caused significant disruption with high winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. These storms can result in damage to infrastructure, power outages, and travel disruptions.

4. Heatwaves and warmer summers: While Ireland is not typically associated with hot climates, there have been instances of heatwaves and warmer summers in recent years. These periods of unusually high temperatures can lead to drought conditions, impact agriculture and water resources, and put strain on energy consumption for cooling purposes. However, it's important to note that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Ireland are generally lower compared to countries with more continental climates.

Overall, it's crucial to remember that weather patterns can vary from year to year, and the impacts of climate change are multifaceted. The trends mentioned above provide a general overview of some observed changes in weather patterns in Ireland, but for a more comprehensive understanding, consulting official climate reports and local weather agencies would provide the most accurate and up-to-date information on how the weather has changed in recent years.

How to predict the weather

 Predicting the weather is a complex process that requires specialized knowledge, tools, and data analysis. While professional meteorologists use sophisticated models and observations to make accurate forecasts, here are some basic factors and methods you can consider for personal weather prediction:

1. Weather Patterns and Trends: By observing patterns and trends in your local area, you can make educated guesses about the weather. For example, certain seasons may be associated with specific weather conditions, such as hot and dry summers or cold and snowy winters.

2. Clouds and Sky: Cloud formations can provide clues about impending weather changes. High, wispy cirrus clouds often indicate the approach of a warm front, while towering cumulonimbus clouds can suggest the possibility of thunderstorms. Familiarize yourself with different cloud types and their associated weather patterns.

3. Barometric Pressure: Changes in barometric pressure can indicate approaching weather systems. Falling barometric pressure often signifies the approach of a low-pressure system and the potential for stormy weather, while rising pressure can indicate fairer conditions.

4. Wind Direction: Monitoring wind direction can offer insights into weather changes. For example, a shift in wind direction from the south or southeast can indicate the arrival of warm air, while a shift from the north or northwest may bring colder conditions.

5. Observation of Animals and Nature: Animals and natural phenomena can sometimes provide hints about upcoming weather changes. For instance, birds flying low to the ground or insects seeking shelter might indicate an approaching storm. Pay attention to animal behavior and natural indicators such as changes in plant growth or the behavior of certain creatures.

6. Weather Instruments: Having basic weather instruments can assist in tracking conditions. A thermometer measures temperature, a barometer records atmospheric pressure, and a hygrometer measures humidity. By regularly monitoring these variables, you can identify trends and make rough predictions.

7. Weather Apps and Websites: Utilize weather apps or websites that provide reliable and up-to-date forecasts based on professional meteorological models and data. These platforms often incorporate satellite imagery, radar, and weather station reports to provide accurate predictions for your specific location.

Remember that personal weather prediction methods may not be as precise or comprehensive as those employed by professional meteorologists. For detailed and reliable forecasts, it's best to rely on official weather services or local meteorological sources.

Thunderstorms in Ireland

 To mark the thunderstorm activity that hit Dublin on May 8th here are 5 notable thundery spells that have hit Ireland in the past. 

Here are five notable thunderstorms in Ireland's history:

1. The "Night of the Big Wind" - On the night of January 6th, 1839, a severe storm swept across Ireland, causing widespread damage and loss of life. The storm was characterized by extremely high winds, lightning, and thunder.

2. The Dublin thunderstorm of 1902 - On July 21st, 1902, a thunderstorm struck Dublin, causing widespread damage and flooding. The storm dumped around 75 mm (3 inches) of rain in just a few hours.

3. The 1974 Dublin thunderstorm - On August 7th, 1974, a severe thunderstorm hit Dublin, causing extensive flooding in the city center. The storm was characterized by heavy rain, thunder, and lightning.

4. The 2014 August thunderstorm - On August 24th, 2014, a severe thunderstorm struck Ireland, causing widespread power outages and damage to buildings. The storm was characterized by intense lightning strikes, heavy rain, and strong winds.

5. The 2017 Limerick thunderstorm - On August 22nd, 2017, a severe thunderstorm struck Limerick, causing flash flooding in parts of the city. The storm was characterized by heavy rain and thunder.

It's worth noting that there have been many other notable thunderstorms in Ireland's history, and the frequency and severity of thunderstorms can vary widely depending on the season and weather patterns.

20 Interesting May Weather Facts for Ireland

 Here are 20 interesting weather stats on past Mays in Ireland based on historical data:

1. The warmest May on record in Ireland was in 1992, with an average temperature of 14.5°C (58°F).

2. The coldest May on record in Ireland was in 1979, with an average temperature of 8.7°C (48°F).

3. In 2018, Ireland experienced its sunniest May on record, with an average of 308.5 hours of sunshine.

4. The wettest May on record in Ireland was in 1947, with an average rainfall of 188.7mm.

5. The driest May on record in Ireland was in 1976, with an average rainfall of only 16.4mm.

6. In 2021, some parts of Ireland experienced their hottest May day on record, with temperatures reaching 27.8°C (82°F).

7. In 2004, Ireland experienced a particularly cold May, with temperatures reaching as low as -4.2°C (24°F) in some parts of the country.

8. The average temperature in May in Ireland has increased by 0.7°C (1.3°F) since 1981.

9. In May 2015, Ireland experienced its coldest spring in 60 years, with an average temperature of only 6.5°C (44°F).

10. In 2012, Ireland experienced an unusually wet May, with some areas receiving double their normal monthly rainfall.

11. In May 2017, Ireland experienced a heatwave, with temperatures reaching up to 26°C (79°F) in some parts of the country.

12. The highest recorded May temperature in Ireland was 30.8°C (87.4°F), which occurred in 2018.

13. The lowest recorded May temperature in Ireland was -4.4°C (24°F), which occurred in 1979.

14. In May 2019, Ireland experienced its driest spring on record, with only 36% of the normal rainfall for the season.

15. In 2005, Ireland experienced its wettest May in 150 years, with some areas receiving up to 300% of their normal monthly rainfall.

16. In May 2014, Ireland experienced a particularly mild month, with temperatures averaging around 13.5°C (56°F).

17. May 2020 was a particularly sunny month in Ireland, with some areas experiencing over 250 hours of sunshine.

18. In 1995, Ireland experienced a particularly cold May, with temperatures averaging around 8.3°C (47°F).

19. In May 2011, Ireland experienced a particularly dry month, with some areas receiving less than 50% of their normal monthly rainfall.

20. The average number of rainy days in May in Ireland is around 19-22, depending on the location.

Irelands weather in May

 Certainly! Ireland's climate is influenced by its location in the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in mild temperatures and frequent rainfall throughout the year. May is generally considered a pleasant month in Ireland, with mild temperatures and longer daylight hours than the winter months.

Based on historical weather data, the average temperature in Ireland in May is around 11-15°C (52-59°F), with the warmest temperatures typically occurring in the latter half of the month. However, temperatures can vary depending on the location and year. For example, May 2021 saw a particularly warm spell in Ireland, with temperatures reaching up to 27°C (81°F) in some parts of the country.

In terms of rainfall, May is generally a wet month in Ireland, with an average of 70-90mm of rainfall expected throughout the month. However, rainfall can also vary greatly depending on location and year. In some years, May can be particularly dry, while in others, it can be particularly wet.

Overall, May is typically a mild and pleasant month in Ireland, with the occasional warm spell and the possibility of some rain. If you're planning a trip to Ireland in May, it's always a good idea to pack layers and waterproof clothing, just in case.

Exact Date Snow to hit Ireland

 According to the latest GFS modelling system the exact date that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming brings snow to Ireland has now been identified. It is likely that Ireland will be in the grip of heavy snowfall on March 4th. It could last up to a week especially in the East and North. 

Northerly plunge on March 4th signals start to Arctic spell.

Is La Nina changing to El Nino

 Is La Nina finally on the way out after nearly 3 years? What is La Nina and what does it mean for our weather?

La Nina generally takes place when the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) to the West of South America is colder than normal. Through this process the weather systems around the globe are affected. Generally Winters are drier and colder. 

Does La Nina affect Irelands weather? It does seem to weaken the Atlantic influence to our weather as we have seen in the past few years there has been less storms and the Atlantic has been "quiet". 

So what will El Nino mean for us? Well the SST is now increasing and we may have a global El Nino as soon as this Summer. This generally results in warmer than average conditions around the world. While we have seen a lot of warm weather worldwide due to Climate Change there are fears the situation could get much worse with an El Nino event. The last El Nino to quickly follow a La Nina in Ireland in Summer was 1976!

The state of SST in February 2023

New Sudden Stratospheric Warming update

 A new Sudden Stratospheric Warming could be on the way as we head into Spring in Ireland. What does this mean for our weather? We'll it doesn't always mean severe cold but it often will as the cold in the Arctic is shifted South into countries that normally have warmer weather. 

Currently conditions I the Arctic can be seen below and look pretty normal bar a strong plume of Southerlies from the Atlantic side.

 

However forecasts are showing a complete collapse of the polar vortex meaning that all that "purple" will be pushed further to the South bringing Arctic conditions to the continents.

However Ireland may escape in the short term as there is a strong blocking high over us at present and this looks set to remain in place for most of February. 

Dry and Mild February

 This February is now looking very bland and dry for Ireland.  So far Casement has only had 1.1mm of rain for the 1st week! The West has had a bit of drizzle at times. This weather is going to continue for the next couple of weeks with some very Spring like weather likely at times as High Pressure is lodged nearby. Temperatures could very well rise right up to 15c during the month. Next weekend is one of these opportunities. 

So despite previous predictions of cold weather in the midmonth period it now looks as if mainly mild prevails. Of course an odd frost will be possible but nothing like the cold of last month below for memories. 

February Forecast Nightmare

 February is normally a month that is dominated by an Easterly or wet but 2023 is all very knife edge stuff. Some of the forecasting models are predicting quite a mild month while other ones such as the GFS are showing a colder outcome. 

What would seem likely to happen is that it will start off relatively mild and breezy with a little rain but then further into the month things get that bit drier.

Certainly February's weather in Ireland will be dominated by high pressure near or over Ireland but whether it brings mild or cold weather is whats open to question.

At the moment there is quite a low possibility that Ireland goes into the freezer after midmonth but what seems more likely is that the cold weather will be to the East and in Britain and the continent while the temperatures here will likely be 7 to 10c. 

The second half of February looks like being cooler than average and mild weather looks very much off the table. This is due to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that happens in the Arctic every couple of years and this year it has just started. It results in the Polar airmass becoming displaced and initially it looks like being displaced over the US and Canada. After this parts of Rusdia and Northern Europe become targets and its then that cold air may seep in from the East over Ireland.

So an interesting month indeed and the cold temperatures could last well into Spring.