Snow still a risk

Cold weather continues for Ireland and the long term forecasting models are predicting a lot of cold though also a lot of uncertainty. There is a large pool of cold air to the North and East of Ireland and Britain and this is trying to make its presence felt over ourselves but we are being protected by the mild Atlantic. The average snow level is between 300m and 500m so low lying areas of Ireland are not seeing any snowfall. However this cold pool of air is gathering strength and already has found its way to Scotland and Eastern England though snowfall here has been moderate.

Over the next week or so a transitional period takes place with the cold air becoming firmly established over most of Britain but the situation for ourselves will continue pretty much as it is, however wintry precipitation and a storm with some sleet and possibly snow cannot be ruled out on Sunday. The chances of this are about 30% as it seems to be heading more towards France than us. What is likely though is that it will bring some very cold air behind it resulting in some heavy wintry showers and maybe a blanket of snow during night hours.

The best thing to do if you want to make sure of the forecast for the next few weeks is to keep your eyes peeled to the forecast as it is constantly changing since the battleground seems to be where Ireland is located and all forecasting services are struggling with this one coming out with different scenarios. One thing is for certain the mild weather that we saw early in January will not be repeated until some time in February and probably late in that month.

HyperSmash

Snow Risk increases

The risk of snow has increased over the past few model runs and Ireland would get a similar event to 2010 if the charts were to pan out. However this is all very uncertain and weathergossip thinks that the most likely scenario is for a brief cold snap with some snow and a lot of frosty nights. The long term forecast sees another push of cold air from the East into Ireland and this one may have more success. This is forecast to happen in the last week of January and the start of February so this could be a very cold period indeed.

No White Christmas 2012 for Ireland

The odds of a white Christmas for Ireland have almost disappeared. 

There is a chance that it will be cold on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day nights and that some of the showers might be wintry but the confidence on this outcome is quite low and it would look like we are set for temperatures of 7 to 9c on the big day itself possibly dipping to 1 to 3c during the night.

As is normally the case it would appear that the North has the best chance of seeing any flake of snow falling on the big day followed by the Northwest of Ireland and then the West. 

Dublins weather  on Christmas day will be a max of 7 or 8c and a min of 2c. There will be a few brief showers but it should be mostly dry there.

Sligo on the other hand will see more showers and temperatures by day of 9c and a strong breeze. This will work against any possible wintriness during the night but inland areas could get hail if the wind eases and the sky clears for a couple of hours between the precipitation.

As we head into the New Year of 2013 the weather looks like it could get very mild with a temperature of 13 or even 14c a possibility. High Pressure will be situated in the same area as it was last Christmas but a week late and this will bring wind and rain to Connaught and Ulster but a lot of dry and cloudy but mild weather to Leinster and Munster.

Cold Weather to Continue

While it is very difficult to pinpoint just whether it is going to snow in the next 7 to 10 days it is going to be cold with temperatures in single figures on most days. Perhaps Sunday 2nd December and Monday 3rd December will see some mild wet weather and temperatures of 11c. 

Will we see snow?

After this it gets cold again and the temperatures drop to 6 or 7c once again with frost at night time. If shower activity behind fronts from the Northwest is strong enough and falls late at night there could be some mixed precipitation or wet snow. Certainly the mountain tips will get a dusting.

The Christmas weather will soon be here upon us too and people dream of snow and ice unless you are a motorist. It certainly looks like cold weather is going to continue up to the middle of December, however there will be some very short mild bursts and there could be one such burst on the Big Day itself. However after this it looks like more cold weather will come in from the Northwest.

Snow on way?

The weather models are showing there is a probable drop in temperatures for the end of November and into the beginning of December. This will result in some very low temperatures. As we know in Ireland because of our Atlantic maritime position this does not always mean there will be snow but the winds will be from a Northern source so snow chances increase.

If these winds were to switch to a colder Northeaster from the Continent the chance of snow increases further and there appears to be one or two days at the end of November that this is going to indeed happen. After that of course the forecast looks a bit blurry but December looks likely to start very frosty over Ireland with any snowfall limited to Scotland and the Eastern coastline of England at this stage.

Windy perhaps Stormy

A lot of windy weather this week with the possibility of stormy conditions at times in the North and Northwest most especially on Tuesday afternoon and Thursday. There will also be a lot of heavy thundery rain with totals in some spots for the week of 60mm. The next time there is any chance of snow is at the end of November.