No White Christmas 2012 for Ireland

The odds of a white Christmas for Ireland have almost disappeared. 

There is a chance that it will be cold on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day nights and that some of the showers might be wintry but the confidence on this outcome is quite low and it would look like we are set for temperatures of 7 to 9c on the big day itself possibly dipping to 1 to 3c during the night.

As is normally the case it would appear that the North has the best chance of seeing any flake of snow falling on the big day followed by the Northwest of Ireland and then the West. 

Dublins weather  on Christmas day will be a max of 7 or 8c and a min of 2c. There will be a few brief showers but it should be mostly dry there.

Sligo on the other hand will see more showers and temperatures by day of 9c and a strong breeze. This will work against any possible wintriness during the night but inland areas could get hail if the wind eases and the sky clears for a couple of hours between the precipitation.

As we head into the New Year of 2013 the weather looks like it could get very mild with a temperature of 13 or even 14c a possibility. High Pressure will be situated in the same area as it was last Christmas but a week late and this will bring wind and rain to Connaught and Ulster but a lot of dry and cloudy but mild weather to Leinster and Munster.

Cold Weather to Continue

While it is very difficult to pinpoint just whether it is going to snow in the next 7 to 10 days it is going to be cold with temperatures in single figures on most days. Perhaps Sunday 2nd December and Monday 3rd December will see some mild wet weather and temperatures of 11c. 

Will we see snow?

After this it gets cold again and the temperatures drop to 6 or 7c once again with frost at night time. If shower activity behind fronts from the Northwest is strong enough and falls late at night there could be some mixed precipitation or wet snow. Certainly the mountain tips will get a dusting.

The Christmas weather will soon be here upon us too and people dream of snow and ice unless you are a motorist. It certainly looks like cold weather is going to continue up to the middle of December, however there will be some very short mild bursts and there could be one such burst on the Big Day itself. However after this it looks like more cold weather will come in from the Northwest.

Snow on way?

The weather models are showing there is a probable drop in temperatures for the end of November and into the beginning of December. This will result in some very low temperatures. As we know in Ireland because of our Atlantic maritime position this does not always mean there will be snow but the winds will be from a Northern source so snow chances increase.

If these winds were to switch to a colder Northeaster from the Continent the chance of snow increases further and there appears to be one or two days at the end of November that this is going to indeed happen. After that of course the forecast looks a bit blurry but December looks likely to start very frosty over Ireland with any snowfall limited to Scotland and the Eastern coastline of England at this stage.

Windy perhaps Stormy

A lot of windy weather this week with the possibility of stormy conditions at times in the North and Northwest most especially on Tuesday afternoon and Thursday. There will also be a lot of heavy thundery rain with totals in some spots for the week of 60mm. The next time there is any chance of snow is at the end of November.

Milder Weather for rest of November

The rest of November will be quite mild as the Atlantic takes hold. After a very cold October it will be a welcome change to many people and there is going to be a good deal of dry weather at times too with temperatures expected to be 10 to 12c a lot of the time.

Frost and Snow that has been seen in small quantities to start the month will no longer be the case apart from a risk of some icy weather around the 10th and 14th November. For more on this see Snow Forecast

Chilly Start to November

November is going to start off very cold this year with wintry showers of hail or sleet at times and temperatures of only 5 to 8c during the day at times. They will rise up to 10 or 11c on some days but this will be the exception rather than the rule.

As the month moves on the cold only stays close to the East of Ireland and the milder air in the Atlantic begins to win out so snowfall is unlikely until later in the month or maybe early December. Certainly the period before Christmas will be dominated by temperatures being below normal as a blocking pattern becomes established in the Atlantic meaning the milder air is kept off our shores except for a few days.

It is expected that November will follow along the lines of something like this

Rainfall 115%
Sunshine 100%
Lowest Temperature -5c
Highest Temperature 13c
Snow Days 1-2
Frost Days 4-6
Average Temperature 6.5c