Cool and Showery

Everybody go. Nothing to see here. Cool and showery for the rest of the Summer is a general consensus floating around at the moment. Hopefully this wont ring true but there is an established and quite mobile flow of Atlantic systems passing over or close to Ireland for the forseeable future with just a few warm days dotted between the almost constant Lows. While it is not as powerful as some recent Summers this year so far has seen its fair share of quite chilly weather. In fact in April we were enjoying warmer conditions than we are now!

Summer 2011 Over?

Summer 2011 would appear to be over after just 4 good days. The charts are repeating a North-West/South-East split for the rest of June and into July there does not appear much change. SO if you live in the Southeast there will be some sunny days from time to time but if you live in the North and West these will be fewer and temperatures will be around normal or slightly cooler at times. Sorry for the bad news.

Flamin June quenched!

The warm start to June will be a false falacy as the weather patterns change dramatically with a low replacing the High and residing over Ireland for the first two weeks of June. This of course will be after temperatures of some 25c on June 3rd 2011 in Ireland. There will still be the odd nice day in June and at least it will not be as windy as May Temperatures are only going to be 12 to 15c before rising to 15 to 18c after week ones heatwave of 4 days!

Anything better for June?

Well May has been a complete write off. High Pressure stuck out in the Atlantic being of no use to anyone.

This scenario happened last Summer too but signals are that June will have a better attempt at pushing the High up to us and bringing warmer conditions of at least 20c if it comes off.

However the High does not seem too keen to cross Ireland in June. We want it over Scandanavia or Northern Europe. What is showing up now in the weather models is it declining back into the ocean with a splash and back to square May once again.

At least we'll get a few nice days for the start of June so the bank holiday may be flaming yet.

Changing Weather Models

There is much uncertainty in the Long Range Weather Forecasting Models. One thing for sure is that the Atlantic is going to get a battering on Monday May 23rd and that there will be 25 to 35mm of rain in the next 3 to 4 days in some parts of the West.

wetterzentrale.de latest model

Beyond that the models dont agree. Do the storms drag a lot of the bad weather up North or will a replacement secondary system become lodged over Ireland?

The first scenario has strengthened its claims on the latest model for a warm sector to end May. This wasnt at all feasible only 12 hours earlier.

Both scenarios result in a temperature differential of 10c so we would like the heat. Perhaps a safer option would be halfway between these. Maybe some warm sunny spells but some shower activity too. No doubt after the weekend it will become clearer. Weatherwise we hope too.

In order to keep posted weathergossip has it all.

Very wet May on the cards

A look at the long range weather models show that May is going to be a very wet month. But lets not panic yet. We were expecting that but hopefully at month end and into June things will improve somewhat. However it does look like the South and West of Ireland will see their wettest May in many years.

So far in Cork they have already had over a months worth of rain and though places like Sligo, Galway and Castlebar have been drier so far this is about to change as the wind shifts to a more Westerly stream.

The East should end up with a May of normal or just above normal rainfall but overall the temperatures are going to cool down significantly too for the rest of the month making it feel quite Autumnal at times!!! Just look forward to June I'd advise.