7 reasons why Irelands weather has turned unsettled

 After Ireland had such a dry and fairly warm Summer overall the pattern of weather that Autumn has greeted us with has come as a bit of a shock to the system. There has been rain on most days and no sign at all of any dry weather.

But what is causing all this? Let's go through some of the causes step by step.

1. The sea temperatures. 

Over the Summer the sea temperatures had been very warm. However as High Pressure was over or near Ireland at this time the moisture being built up over the warm Oceans was kept well off our shores. When eventually the next Low was to come it would bring quite large rainfall amounts. So if all this rainfall then has fallen why are we still getting more.

2. The pressure 

Unfortunately the High that was over us in the Summer has simply migrated slightly East to Europe meaning that Ireland is stuck with a conveyor belt of low pressure systems driving rain to our shores. But how come there's so many lows? I thought there was only one or two low pressure systems at a time. 

3. The Dumbbell Effect

What the hell is the dumbell effect I hear you cry. Well it's the name given as the same low pressure system keeps reinvigorating itself as it has nowhere to go due to the high pressure to the East of the UK (where they are also seeing endless rain). So why is the rain so heavy and thundery? Doesn't this just happen in High Summer?

4. "High" temperatures

The High Pressure that lies over Europe is drawing up very warm air as we have seen over parts of Europe in the past week with temperatures of 30.3c in San Sebastian and 35c in Seville and 32c in France. To the West of the High the Low Pressure systems are pushing cooler air but as it meets the drier warmer air convection is occurring causing sparks and very heavy rain. So is there any reason why suddenly from being so quiet that the weather has taken such a nasty turn?

5. The Jet Stream

We often hear Met Eireann and the UK Met Office talk about how the jetstream affects our weather. Well here at weathergossip just think of it this way. If the jet is weak or to our North we tend to get benign weather but an active jet like we have now causes very unsettled weather when it is near or over Ireland. Think Summers 2007 to 2012. Yes yuk. OK so are we stuck with this unsettled weather?

6. Nothing lasts forever...even cold November rain

Well that's what Guns and Roses told us and maybe they had a point. Despite the fact that it seems like the weather is going to be endlessly unsettled due to these "dumbbell lows" it more than likely won't be. So what is going to end this period of unsettled wet weather? Read on

7. How this unsettled weather will likely end

The weather came from the South during most of October  Repeated rainfall from the South can last weeks on end pressed up against such a strong high. But there has been a bit of a pattern shift. We have seen a more Southwesterly pattern emerge and this could mean things beginning to settle down around mid November especially in the South and East. There is still likely to be light rain or drizzle in the West and North but with lighter winds later in November temperatures should improve into the mid teens. So get over the next 10 days and things should begin to dry out then. 

Cool and Unsettled October

 The weather for October 2022 in Ireland is going to continue on a cool and unsettled theme. The nights are also getting cooler and the ECM hints at some frosty nights after next weekend. 

Similarly there are also hints of some stormy weather at times especially next Friday or Saturday. 

Cooler as we head into October

 The weather is forecast to become a lot cooler as we head into October however it may stay a bit mild in the first week as High Pressure tries to settle near to Ireland. However many models are showing a series of low pressure systems coming down from the North during this period. Temperatures are forecast to be around 18c during the first week of October in Ireland but after this they will drop sharply. 

Cooler conditions are then forecast to take hold around the second week of October and there could also could be some frost or ice on some of the nights. Though it will be cool for much of October it doesn't look like it will be cool enough for snow yet in 2022. Maybe around 10c to 14c and with those high energy bills that isn't really good news is it?

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Dry weather on the way

 Ireland looks set to see a lot of dry weather for the rest of March and into April. So far March has been colder and slightly wetter than normal. High pressure should build over the country over the coming days bringing light southeast winds and temperatures of up to 15c in the West. There will be some frost at night. The end of March will see a battle between dry weather to the East and wetter Atlantic weather to the West.

Storm Barra Predicted Gusts112kp

 Kerry 140kph 131kph actual 

Roches Pt 135kph 111kph

Cork 120kph 106kph

Johnstone 115kph

Shannon 118kph

Mace HD 127kph

Belmullet 117kph

Newport 112kph

Malin 110kph 118kph

Actual Gusts to follow

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Christmas 2021 Weather Forecast

 Pinpointing the long range weather can be a difficult and somewhat tricky exercise especially as the past few months have been so mild. It would stand to reason then that Christmas 2021 would therefore turn out to be mild also here in Ireland. 

However the weather always comes with a caveat and while so far the 2nd half of 2021 has been mild and benign the month of December this year from all the trends and long term forecasts looks like being one of transition. 

As the month of November ends and Ireland gets battered by some windy episodes some milder weather will follow suit and we will be back in the benign pattern. However it is December now and nor October or November so the Northern push is a little stronger than before. 

Most of the months this year have been milder than normal and some more than others but even though December is also trending milder there are strong signs of some colder episodes also so it does not look like it will be as excessively above normal as the first 20 days of November was. 

So what does all this mean for Christmas? Well pinpointing the exact dates can be difficult but currently its looking like a strong low pressure sinks South around mid month. This will have the effect of dragging in colder Easterlies from Norway and strong frosts are possible during this time and wintry showers may bring some light sleet or snow.

However around December 20th some but milder weather is due to push back from the Atlantic and this will have the effect of bringing wet and windy weather all the way to Christmas.

Temperatures will be around 11c but in or around December 26th a cold front will move down from the Northwest bringing more wintry showers for a time before milder weather returns for the New Year.

So while overall the majority or December will be mild there will certainly be 2 cold spells that will likely be short lived but could bring some snow especially to the Northern half of Ireland.